How Floyd Mayweather Jr. Will Cash In Big By Moving The Betting Line In Conor McGregor's Favor
Floyd Mayweather Jr. will cash in big by betting on himself to beat Conor McGregor on August 26 in Las Vegas. By insisting that McGregor has a chance, Mayweather is helping move the line in McGregor's favor, creating more line value for himself.
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Floyd Mayweather Jr. is a sharp. No, that wasn't a typo. Not sharp, but a sharp. That's the highest compliment the can be bestowed upon a sports bettor. Let's make no bones about it. Floyd Mayweather is a prolific sports bettor and isn't shy to express it.
A sharp is a bettor that understands how the linesmakers set the lines and what influences line movement. In this case, the opening line is an educated guess of a starting point that oddsmakers believe will inspire equal action from bettors on both sides. Most of this is based on public perception along with historical data. The truth of the matter is that after the lines are available for the public to bet on it's a waiting game to see if there's any significant movement. At that point, two things happen. The public reacts to the line and starts placing its wager or sharps feel the line is wrong and make their move. In either case, the line will start to move. In this case, the public can be manipulated into buying into the perceived value for Conor McGregor which is currently +550 (wager $100 to win $550). From there, it's very simple. The oddsmakers will move the line in accordance to where the money is going. The more money wagered on Conor McGregor, the lower the line will become when placing a bet on Floyd Mayweather. By fight week, this will work in Mayweather's favor.
This is exactly why he is going to make you and anyone else that will listen think that Conor McGregor has a chance to beat him on August 26. You see, the more you believe and the more you put your hard earned money on McGregor because of the perceived value, the lower the line becomes for Mayweather as a favorite. This means that Mayweather can place a wager on himself and add to his earnings for the evening.
Mayweather has the ability to move the line for this fight and that's exactly what he's doing. Mayweather is simply passing out the Kool-Aid and people are drinking.
Even UFC boss Dana White is making a case for McGregor, helping feed into the line movement for every McGregor fan that is looking for hope that their guy can win.
When this fight began to pick up steam in November, the original line was set with Mayweather as a big favorite at -2250. When it comes to betting on sports, it's all about line value. At -2250 (wager $2,250 to win $100) there was no value in betting that particular line. On the other hand, according to the boxing betting experts at fiftyfourpercent.com, the odds are now Mayweather -600 to beat McGregor. The line has moved almost 75% since the opening line was set with almost 60% of the money currently coming in on McGregor to pull the colossal upset. Sprinkle in some fake news, misinformation and talking heads making you think McGregor has a chance and the line will keep moving for McGregor. When compared historically to odds for Mayweather Jr.'s previous fights, it's simply ridiculous to try to understand that Conor McGregor is being given more of a chance than other fighters that were seasoned world championship caliber boxers.
Peter Kahn
Mayweather Historical Odds Data
But that's the beauty of this. Mayweather knows he can count on McGregor to make a case for himself. All Mayweather needs to do is feed into it and watch that line continue to drop until fight night.
When it's all said and done and the ether wears off, don't be surprised when Mayweather posts his winning ticket on himself after the fight, simply adding to his record-breaking payday.
